It’s interesting to consider when a person or group of people change their minds. The most common perception is that when the person is presented with some rational arguments, they might change their opinion. For light or dry decisions, this might very well be true for most people. But for issues that are fraught and tied to belief systems, minds are often made up when having a discussion. No matter how many or how strong the argument, positions don’t change.
So when do they change? Rarely in the middle of the argument, and rarely because one side ran out of counterpoints. The shift tends to happen later and quietly, once there’s no audience and no position left to defend. It also tends to come from people rather than points — a friend, a colleague, someone inside the group whose belonging isn’t in question. Direct experience does more work than logic, because a fact can be dismissed but a thing you lived through is harder to argue with. And it helps when changing is cheap: when someone can update without it looking like a defeat or a betrayal of their side. Which suggests the more useful question isn’t how to make the argument stronger, but how to lower the cost of being wrong.